Stock Market Trading & Investing Analysis

Ralph December 22nd, 2007

It’s hard to say how much of Friday’s buying in the markets was Wall Street’s lame attempt at a Christmas rally.  Breadth for the week overall was in the range of what we would consider to be mildly strong and most of it is due to yesterday’s rally which could evaporate at about the same rate as it takes the market to sober up from it’s flah lah lah lah lah lah lah lah.  Breadth performance clearly favored small caps, then mid caps and lastly big caps in the overall indexes.  To see the entire Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation.  Please email us with your request.

For now, let’s take a small peak at some of the results from this weeks Weekly Breadth Report.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG132 - METALS & MINING - Copper 100%
MG736 - RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores 100%
MG751 - WHOLESALE - Auto Parts Wholesale 100%
MG812 - COMPUTER HARDWARE - Personal Computers 100%
MG844 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Long Distance Carriers 100%

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG330 - AUTOMOTIVE  54.69%
MG430 - INSURANCE  42.94%

Here are the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG714 - LEISURE - Specialty Eateries -100%
MG851 - INTERNET - Internet Service Providers -100%
MG428 - FINANCIAL SERVICES - Closed End Fund - Foreign -56.84%
MG711 - LEISURE - Lodging -50%
MG752 - WHOLESALE - Building Materials Wholesale -50%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG710 - LEISURE  -15.32%
MG420 - FINANCIAL SERVICES  -11.04%

If you’d like to receive the entire breadth report so you can see where the broad based buying and selling occurred last week for over 270 specific sectors of the market just let us know!

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph December 15th, 2007

In the spirit of the holidays we thought we’d publish the entire Weekly Sector Breadth report covering all 273 groups that we track for last weeks trading. You can sort the numeric columns any way you like.  The sorting function does not work very well for the Sector names unfortunately. The Report is usually delivered to customers in an Excel format which is much more user friendly allowing one to organize the data in whatever way they like.  But the price is right, so in lieu of that, enjoy the report.  Regular customers can purchase the report as usual for $5, just email us with your request.

Weekly price charts of major US Stock Market indexes appear to be poised to begin a nasty wave 3 down and last weeks overall breadth in the markets would support that case. Breadth overall was the weakest it has been since the week ending October 19, 2007. You will notice that this was a wave 1 down that led to further weakness into late November. This kind of weakness does not give us a very optimistic outlook for gains in the market over the next few weeks. This suggests the late November and possibly even August lows need further testing. The wimpy FOMC rate cut last week isn’t helping matters either.  Without further ado, please enjoy the report below -

December 14, 2007 Weekly Sector Breadth Report

If you’d like to receive any previous or future Weekly Sector Breadth Reports just let us know!

Good Trading Next Week and Happy Holidays to All!

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Ralph December 9th, 2007

Let’s take a peak at some results from this weeks Weekly Breadth Report. If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

DJ-15 - Dow Jones Utility Average 100%
MG121 - ENERGY - Major Integrated Oil & Gas 100%
MG313 - CONSUMER DURABLES - Housewares & Accessories 100%
MG443 - REAL ESTATE - REIT - Healthcare Facilities 100%
MG611 - AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Major Dive 100%

There were 8 total sectors that had +100% breadth last week.

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG910 - UTILITIES  69.53%
MG610 - AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  55.77%

Here are the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG729 - MEDIA - Publishing - Books -71.43%
MG528 - HEALTH SERVICES - Medical Practitioners -50%
MG758 - WHOLESALE - Food Wholesale -45.45%
MG725 - MEDIA - Broadcasting - Radio -44.44%
MG826 - COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Healthcare Information Service -42.86%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG720 - MEDIA  -6.43%
MG710 - LEISURE  2.4%

If you’d like to receive the entire breadth report so you can see where the broad based buying and selling occurred last week for over 270 specific sectors of the market just let us know!

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph November 17th, 2007

At the end of the day last Monday it looked like we were headed into the abyss for most major market indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poors 500, but all of these indexes traded mostly above Mondays price range the rest of the week.  Some strong late short covering closed the indexes with small up closing candles for the week.  Not much of a bounce but the setup is there for them to rally next week.  Overall market breadth, although mildly negative (approx -20% by various measures) was the strongest of the past 3 weeks.  This continues to form the positive breadth divergence we spoke about last week, i.e. weekly breadth readings have not been nearly as negative as the week ending October 19.  As prices have dropped breadth has been improving (i.e. has been less negative).  It would not be suprising to see Bulls taking control next week.

Let’s take a peak at some results from this weeks Weekly Breadth Report.  If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG736 - RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores 100%
MG844 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Long Distance Carriers 100%
MG443 - REAL ESTATE - REIT - Healthcare Facilities 80%
MG771 - TRANSPORTATION - Major Airlines 80%
MG313 - CONSUMER DURABLES - Housewares & Accessories 66.67%

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG350 - TOBACCO 60%
MG730 - RETAIL 23.66%

Here are the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG136 - METALS & MINING - Silver -100%
MG137 - METALS & MINING - Nonmetallic Mineral Mining -100%
MG332 - AUTOMOTIVE - Trucks & Other Vehicles -100%
MG625 - MANUFACTURING - Machine Tools & Accessories -100%
MG832 - ELECTRONICS - Semiconductor - Memory Chips -100%

Finally some distribution hit the precious metals markets, it has been overdue.

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG130 - METALS & MINING -70.56%
MG120 - ENERGY -57%

If you’d like to receive the entire breadth report so you can see where the broad based buying and selling occurred last week for over 270 specific sectors of the market just let us know!

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph November 10th, 2007

The market finally broke down last week and weekly charts of most major us market indices and averages have a fairly ominous look of more breakdown to come.  But let’s not get ourselves worked up into a panic, we might want to buy from those who are panicking instead.  Overall market breadth was not as severe as it was in the week ending October 19.  This creates a positive breadth divergence - a lower price low in the indexes with a higher breadth reading.  This shows the sellers are getting tired, buyers are absorbing more of the selling in this weeks decline than they were in the previous drop.  Also, most averages have tested their weekly 50 simple and exponential moving averages and their lower bollinger bands.  This is the 3rd test this year in that zone for many indices, all of which turned out to be significant buying opportunities.  Let’s take a peak at some results from this weeks Weekly Breadth Report.  If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG136 - METALS & MINING - Silver 60%
MG434 - INSURANCE - Surety & Title Insurance 60%
MG525 - HEALTH SERVICES - Hospitals 40%
MG416 - BANKING - Regional - Southwest Banks 28.13%
MG415 - BANKING - Regional - Midwest Banks 23.33%

Precious metals AGAIN getting buying this week…

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG410 - BANKING -10.11%
MG430 - INSURANCE -19.32%

What’s this? We might actually need banks to stay in business? Amidst all the panic and doomsday talk about the financial industry, this sector actually performed the strongest on a breadth basis than any other industry last week? Hmmm, good thing we have the breadth report.  Here is the POINT, if you are new to breadth analysis, the banking industry last week ranked #5 in price percent change for the week yet was #1 in terms of breadth performance.  This is why breadth analysis is so useful.  It is like seeing BENEATH the surface of price movement.  Last week out of all the Industries we track Banking had the most broad based buying or another way of saying it is it had the least amount of selling across the constituent stocks within that group.  This is important information that can NOT be culled from price observation alone.  Take note of how this group acts next week my friends…

On the weak side, normally we offer only the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed, but since we have a large -100% breadth list this week, we thought we’d list them for ya -

MG132 - METALS & MINING - Copper -100%
MG133 - METALS & MINING - Aluminum -100%
MG313 - CONSUMER DURABLES - Housewares & Accessories -100%
MG328 - CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Office Supplies -100%
MG332 - AUTOMOTIVE - Trucks & Other Vehicles -100%
MG341 - FOOD & BEVERAGE - Food - Major Diversified -100%
MG347 - FOOD & BEVERAGE - Beverages - Brewers -100%
MG624 - MANUFACTURING - Pollution & Treatment Controls -100%
MG625 - MANUFACTURING - Machine Tools & Accessories -100%
MG626 - MANUFACTURING - Small Tools & Accessories -100%
MG721 - MEDIA - Advertising Services -100%
MG726 - MEDIA - CATV Systems -100%
MG736 - RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores -100%
MG771 - TRANSPORTATION - Major Airlines -100%
MG774 - TRANSPORTATION - Air Delivery & Freight Service -100%
MG811 - COMPUTER HARDWARE - Diversified Computer Systems -100%
MG813 - COMPUTER HARDWARE - Computer Based Systems -100%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG330 - AUTOMOTIVE -77.27%
MG810 - COMPUTER HARDWARE -75.93%

Again, please let us know if you’d like to receive the entire report so you can see where the broad based buying and selling occured last week for over 270 specific sectors of the market.

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph November 3rd, 2007

“… next week could go either way, more upside or some sideways consolidation. Downside seems a bit limited for next week considering the correction we just had.” was our call last week and we basically DID get some sideways consolidation. At times it appeared that the market was ready to crack but the late rally on Friday closed most major indexes more in what we would call consolidation territory than breakdown territory. Breadth was mildly negative this week overall, about as mildly negative as it was mildly positive the week prior, basically another way of saying - consolidation. It’s very hard to say what will happen next week. Hindsight being 20:20 as it is most major indexes are showing massive bearish divergences in their MACD which could make the case for more downside next week. But we like to stay as close to buyers and sellers, i.e. price and volume in our analysis. MACD is a derivative of price action and therefore can only lag market action. Anyway, let’s move on to the Breadth Report for a snapshot of some of the breadth winners and losers last week.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG137 - METALS & MINING - Nonmetallic Mineral Mining 70%
MG136 - METALS & MINING - Silver 60%
MG611 - AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Major Dive 50%
MG812 - COMPUTER HARDWARE - Personal Computers 50%
MG135 - METALS & MINING - Gold 49.02%

Precious metals getting more buying this week…

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG910 - UTILITIES -0.75%
MG850 - INTERNET -1.01%

Note the 2 strongest Industries came just shy of 0% breadth, indicating the weakness overall.

Here are the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG313 - CONSUMER DURABLES - Housewares & Accessories -100%
MG443 - REAL ESTATE - REIT - Healthcare Facilities -100%
MG736 - RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores -100%
MG737 - RETAIL - Home Furnishing Stores -100%
MG844 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Long Distance Carriers -100%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG440 - REAL ESTATE-59.91%
MG410 - BANKING -59.22%

More pain for the housing market, homebuilders, financials, etc… Was the market expecting MORE of a rate cut than it got?

If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph October 27th, 2007

“…with breadth this negative we would expect to see some kind of bounce next week.” was our call last weekend and we got that bounce indeed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard and Poors 500 Index both retraced approximately 50% of their price declines from October 11th to 22nd, while the outperforming Nasdaq Composite has retraced about 80% of that decline, appearing to be poised to make new highs.  Overall market breadth was very strong but not extreme which suggests next week could go either way, more upside or some sideways consolidation.  Downside seems a bit limited for next week considering the correction we just had.  The Fed meeting announcement of course could be a catalyst either way.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG136 - METALS & MINING - Silver 100%
MG341 - FOOD & BEVERAGE - Food - Major Diversified 100%
MG352 - TOBACCO - Tobacco Products 100%
MG611 - AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Major Dive 100%
MG723 - MEDIA - Entertainment - Diversified 100%

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG910 - UTILITIES 78.2%
MG610 - AEROSPACE/DEFENSE 69.23%

Here are the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

SMH - Semiconductor HOLDRS -94.74%
MG434 - INSURANCE - Surety & Title Insurance -60%
MG741 - SPECIALTY RETAIL - Sporting Goods Stores -33.33%
MG813 - COMPUTER HARDWARE - Computer Based Systems -33.33%
MG832 - ELECTRONICS - Semiconductor - Memory Chips -33.33%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG810 - COMPUTER HARDWARE -4.63%
MG830 - ELECTRONICS 1.08%

The weakness in tech last week is curious considering that the overall Nasdaq Composite and Q’s have been outperforming.  This weakness, which shows in breadth but not in price movement, highlights the advantage we have in analyzing breadth within specific sectors.  This kind of action suggests that tech could be pausing at these old highs and needing some consolidation next week.  We shall see…

If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph October 20th, 2007

“We would expect to see more consolidation next week with a slightly more bearish bias.” was our call last weekend and boy did we ever get that bearish bias.  The weekly decline on price charts of major US stock market indexes and averages sure look scary now.  Overall weekly breadth in the markets haven’t been this negative since week ending July 27th.  That week led to much more selloff and the price charts sure are suggesting more selloff this time as well.  However, we are in a new economic environment with the Fed in easing mode and with breadth this negative we would expect to see some kind of bounce next week.  What happens after that, assuming it happens, we will leave to the genius analysts out there.  For now, let’s take a look at which sectors of the market took the brunt of the selling and which were hurt the least.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG773 - TRANSPORTATION - Air Services 9.09%
MG527 - HEALTH SERVICES - Home Health Care 7.14%
MG350 - TOBACCO -  0%
MG351 - TOBACCO - Cigarettes 0%
MG352 - TOBACCO - Tobacco Products 0%

That’s right, only 2 sectors out of the 273 groups we track were net breadth postive!  That is VERY weak, a sign that we have swung nicely from the Manic to the Depressive end of the market emotional spectrum.  Numbers that week can’t be sustained for long without some buying happening, unless of course it’s the end of the world. 

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG350 - TOBACCO 0%
MG810 - COMPUTER HARDWARE -31.82%

Not a single overall Industry with better than breakeven breadth, ouch!
 

Instead of mentioning only the top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed, why don’t we spoil you a bit with the entire -100% breadth list, scary scary, right in time for Halloween!

MG111 - CHEMICALS - Chemicals - Major Diversified -100%
MG318 - CONSUMER DURABLES - Recreational Goods -100%
MG621 - MANUFACTURING - Farm & Construction Machinery -100%
MG625 - MANUFACTURING - Machine Tools & Accessories -100%
MG626 - MANUFACTURING - Small Tools & Accessories -100%
MG631 - MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Residential Construction -100%
MG634 - MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - Cement -100%
MG637 - MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION - General Contractors -100%
MG717 - LEISURE - General Entertainment -100%
MG729 - MEDIA - Publishing - Books -100%
MG732 - RETAIL - Discount -100%
MG736 - RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores -100%
MG737 - RETAIL - Home Furnishing Stores -100%
MG738 - RETAIL - Auto Parts Stores -100%
MG811 - COMPUTER HARDWARE - Diversified Computer Systems -100%
MG824 - COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Security Software & Services -100%
MG828 - COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Information & Delivery Service -100%
MG844 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Long Distance Carriers -100%

Hmmm, wonder if there might be any bargains happening here.  In the famous words of one of the greatest traders that I know of out there, and I paraphrase - “I always bet against the end of the world because if it REALLY IS the end of the world I won’t need the money anyway!”  That man goes by the handle of Hotto and membership in his club is worth every penny.

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG630 - MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION -79.23%
MG730 - RETAIL -78.35%

If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph October 13th, 2007

It appears that the overdue consolidation we have been discussing lately hit the US stock markets last week.  The Nasdaq composite and the Q’s outperformed the broader market as usual.  There might be a slight upside bias in the weekly price charts of most of the major stock market indexes but breadth overall was slightly negative.  We would expect to see more consolidation next week with a slightly more bearish bias.  Let’s see which sectors were the winners and losers last week…

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

OIH - Oil Services Trust HOLDRS 100%
MG126 - ENERGY - Oil & Gas Pipelines 91.18%
XLE - SPDR Energy 82.14%
MG136 - METALS & MINING - Silver 80%
MG135 - METALS & MINING - Gold 76%

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG350 - TOBACCO  60%
MG130 - METALS & MINING  49.44%

The top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG443 - REAL ESTATE - REIT - Healthcare Facilities -100%
MG736 - RETAIL - Home Improvement Stores -100%
MG717 - LEISURE - General Entertainment -83.33%
MG758 - WHOLESALE - Food Wholesale -81.82%
MG828 - COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Information & Delivery Service -80%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG210 - CONGLOMERATES  -53.85%
MG440 - REAL ESTATE  -44.29%

If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Good Trading Next Week All!

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Ralph October 6th, 2007

Well, those old July highs that we talked about 2 weeks ago have now been tested and decisively exceeded in almost all of the major US Stock Market averages and indexes.  Even the Dow Jones Transportation Average woke up last week and appears to be poised for its return journey to its July highs.  Overall market breadth was very strong last week, very similar to the week ending September 21 (2 weeks ago).   In fact, you will see in our full Breadth Report that 255 of the 273 market sectors we track had greater than 0% breadth!  This resurgence in strength at old highs shows some major short covering and real buying continuing to happen.  The old highs would have been a natural place for some consolidation but instead more strength came in.  At this point it would seem VERY overdue for the markets to rest in their advance next week but in this new rate cut environment it has proven wise to give the Bulls the benefit of the doubt.  So for now let’s take a peak at our weekly breadth results to see where the sector strength and weakness is at the moment.  Take a look at the full report for more detail and to spot sings of sector rotation.  Instructions for receiving the full report are found below.

Here are the top 5 strongest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed.

DJ-15 - Dow Jones Utility Average 100%
SWH - Software HOLDRS 100%
XHB - Homebuilders HOLDRS 100%
MG313 - CONSUMER DURABLES - Housewares & Accessories 100%
MG421 - FINANCIAL SERVICES - Investment Brokerage - National 100%

In the full report you will see that there are another 4 market sectors that had +100% breadth last week.

The strongest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG210 - CONGLOMERATES - Conglomerates  84.62%
MG910 - UTILITIES  73.68%

The top 5 weakest groups, with industries, sub-industries and etf’s mixed -

MG113 - CHEMICALS - Agricultural Chemicals -57.14%
MG751 - WHOLESALE - Auto Parts Wholesale -50%
MG733 - RETAIL - Drug Stores -33.33%
MG328 - CONSUMER NON-DURABLES - Office Supplies -25%
MG136 - METALS & MINING - Silver -20%

The weakest 2 overall INDUSTRIES -

MG350 - TOBACCO  0%
MG110 - CHEMICALS  18.95%

If you would like to have access to this or any other full Weekly Breadth Report report covering all 273 groups that we track we ask for a $5 donation. Please email us with your request.

Good Trading Next Week All!

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